Russia finds itself in a Gordian Knot of its own creation
The Kremlin can't afford to stop the war in Ukraine nor can it afford to keep the war going for much longer
2021 fabricated intelligence delivered by Defence Minister Shoigu to Putin: “NATO will invade Russia, so we must preempt by invading Ukraine.”
2024 fabricated intelligence in the SVR press release: “NATO will invade Russia if we stop the war in Ukraine, so we must keep the war going at all costs.”
We know why Shoigu fabricated the intelligence in 2021. We may know why Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service just published a press release with very similarly-sounding nonsense.
Per the leaks to those close to Russia’s General Staff, “Russia is fucked” following American permission to strike inside Russia with ATACMS and Storm Shadows.
How to make sense of all this then?
Please browse through the following brief timeline for helpful background that ties into this story:
Putin continues to make futile threats against Trump following their Nov 6 phone call about Ukraine
Following Ukraine’s President Zelensky saying he could hypothetically agree to a ceasefire and cede the nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia, including Crimea and Donbas, in exchange for placing the remaining 80% of the nation under protection of a “NATO Umbrella,” Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) issued a panicked press release today. It must be stressed Zelensky said the West has not made such an offer and in my opinion Ukraine developing its own nuclear weapons is more likely than any kind of NATO membership in the medium term.
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said Russia will refuse any ceasefire because the West wants to temporarily freeze the war in Ukraine in order to restore the Ukrainian Armed Forces' combat capability by sending 100,000 NATO soldiers to Ukraine as 'peacekeepers.'
Here’s text released by the SVR in full:
The press office of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation reports that, according to information received by the SVR, in the conditions of the obvious lack of prospects for inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield, NATO is increasingly inclined to the need to "freeze" the Ukrainian conflict. The West considers the implementation of such a scenario as an opportunity to restore the combat capability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and thoroughly prepare Kiev for an attempt at revenge. NATO is already deploying training centers in Ukraine, through which it is planned to drag at least a million mobilized Ukrainians.
Another important area of the alliance's work during the truce will be the restoration of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. Active work is underway with Western military-industrial companies, including the German Rheinmetall, from which they are required not only to invest, but also to send leading specialists and high-performance equipment to Ukraine. NATO headquarters understands that without providing the Ukrainian Armed Forces with sufficient weapons and ammunition, the expectation that the Ukrainians will be able to conduct high-intensity combat operations over a long period of time is unrealistic.
To solve these problems, the West will need to actually occupy Ukraine. Naturally, this will be done under the guise of deploying a "peacekeeping contingent" in the country. The territories that are supposed to be distributed between the occupiers have been determined:
- Black Sea coast – Romania;
- western regions of Ukraine - Poland;
- the center and east of the country - Germany;
- northern regions, including the capital region, - Great Britain.
In total, it is planned to introduce 100,000 so-called peacekeepers into Ukraine.
According to incoming information, the German military has already turned to the experience of the Nazi invaders establishing an occupation regime in Ukraine during the Great Patriotic War. At the same time, the Bundeswehr has come to the conclusion that it will be impossible to carry out police functions without Sonderkommandos of Ukrainian nationalists. They will come up with a new name, but in essence they will be the same Bandera punishers.
Does Russia need such a peaceful settlement option? The answer is obvious.
Press Bureau of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia
29.11.2024
This statement by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence is reminiscent of the false information fed by the security services and the General Staff in 2021 to Putin about NATO’s supposed secret plans to liberate regions of Ukraine originally occupied by Russia in 2014. This flow of fabricated intelligence reportedly led to at least the rushed timing of Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The purpose for the fabricated intelligence back in 2021 was a calculated distraction by Russia’s Defence Ministry and specifically Shoigu, the Defence Minister at the time. Investigators were closing in on Shoigu and his deputies’ years-long embezzlement from the military budget, totaling around $176 billion (USD). Deputy Defence Minister Ivanov himself was interrogated about it in 2021.
At the time, the gambit worked for Defence Minister Shoigu, and the investigations into his grand corruption were abandoned with the focus urgently shifting to preparations to invade Ukraine to “preempt NATO invasion of Russia.”
Deputy Defence Minister Ivanov managed to remain free until April 2024 when he was finally arrested. Shoigu is still free.
Why is the Kremlin so terrified of a ceasefire or freezing of the frontline in Ukraine that new intel is being fabricated again to make someone believe that NATO will attack Russia?