☢️ Defend Ukraine — or Risk the Mother of All Nuclear Blowbacks
Ceding Ukrainian territory to Russia will trigger global nuclear proliferation, risking humanity’s survival.
Russia’s full withdrawal from Ukraine must be non-negotiable. Any compromise that cedes Ukrainian territory risks emboldening tyrants worldwide, starting with China invading Taiwan, and will trigger a global nuclear arms race.
⬆️ Roadmap to successful negotiations with Russia.
Thirty years ago, under immense pressure from the United States, Ukraine relinquished the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, trusting the security guarantees from nuclear powers: the United States, Russia, the UK, France, and eventually China. In exchange, Ukraine’s sovereignty was supposed to be protected. Yet history has revealed the catastrophic failure of these promises.
On the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum which disarmed Ukraine of the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the world, a discussion was held with Eugene Fishel, former Deputy Director of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, John Herbst, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, and Serhii Plokhii, Director of the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University.
1995: Russia, under Boris Yeltsin, threatened Ukrainian sovereignty immediately after the agreement.
2013: Russia violated the pact through coercive economic sanctions against Ukraine.
2014: Russia annexed Crimea and invaded Donbas. The signatories did nothing.
2022: Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while the signatories failed to provide meaningful military defense.
While the English translation of the Budapest Memorandum uses the term "security assurances," both Ukrainian & Russian versions of the signed agreement use the term "security guarantees."
The pattern is clear: Every guarantor of the Budapest Memorandum has abandoned its obligations, resulting in a full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia. A war that would have never happened had Ukraine retained its nuclear arsenal. This precedent has profound implications for global security.
The Nuclear Domino Effect
If Russia is allowed to retain any Ukrainian territory, the consequences will reverberate worldwide:
Nations Will Pursue Nuclear Weapons: Trust in security guarantees will collapse, prompting non-nuclear states to develop their own arsenals to deter aggression.
Tyrants Will Be Emboldened: A successful Russian land grab will create a playbook for authoritarian regimes—develop nuclear arms, then invade weaker neighbors.
Global Security Will Crumble: With multiple nuclear-armed states engaging in territorial conquests, the risk of miscalculation and nuclear war will skyrocket.
Already, there are nine nuclear-armed nations. None will disarm after witnessing Ukraine’s fate. A quick “ceasefire” that rewards Russia’s aggression will accelerate proliferation, potentially doubling or tripling the number of nuclear states in the coming decades.
The Cost of Short-Term Thinking
History shows that ceding land to Russia is no path to peace. Since 2014, Russia has violated 20 ceasefire agreements with Ukraine. A territorial concession today guarantees future conflict, not stability. Worse, it sends the message that nuclear-armed states can act with impunity, reshaping global norms in ways that endanger everyone.
Imagine a world 15 years from now, where dozens of nuclear-armed nations are emboldened to invade their neighbors. This nightmarish future isn’t far-fetched—it’s the logical outcome of rewarding Russia’s aggression today.
Failure to defend Ukraine from Russia is a major blow to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the same underlying philosophy that forced Ukraine to give up its nuclear arsenal in the first place.
The Hard but Necessary Path
We cannot afford to “move on” or take the easy way out. Allowing Russia to retain Ukrainian territory for the sake of short-term convenience sacrifices long-term global security. The survival of human civilization demands that we make the difficult decisions now:
No territorial concessions. Russia must withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.
A united front. The world must demonstrate that nuclear blackmail and military aggression are not viable strategies.
Peace through strength. Upholding international agreements, starting with the Budapest Memorandum, is essential to maintaining global trust.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. If we fail to act decisively, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the rise of unchecked aggression will create a world teetering on the edge of catastrophe.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not just a test of regional sovereignty—it is a defining moment for humanity’s future. We must rise to the occasion, rejecting appeasement to defend the principles that underpin global peace.
The fate of civilization depends on it.
I urge you to watch this insightful conversation about the Budapest Memorandum, brought to you by people who were actually there when Ukraine was disarmed of nuclear arms: