The United States Should Make Putin Beg for Negotiations

The path is obvious once we finally dismiss Putin's nuclear blackmail and overcome our irrational fear of Russia's collapse

President Trump made it clear in his Inauguration speech that his primary objective is to prevent a world war—an outcome that will largely depend on how the United States addresses Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the coming years.

LTG Keith Kellogg, Special Envoy for Russia & Ukraine in the Trump administration: "Putin will not start a nuclear war." "You don't fight a war allowing [Russia] to have sanctuaries. If you've got to fight a war, you fight a war!" (November, 2024)

There are three obvious yet elusive truths (to many) which we must accept in order to devise a concrete plan of action driven by rationality to prevent a world war:

1. Russia is waging a war not just against Ukraine, but against the entire West, including the United States. Russia has been conducting sabotage and assassination campaigns worldwide, even attempting to kill Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, Germany’s largest arms manufacturer.

   There is also strong evidence that Russia’s GRU unit 29155 has been neutralizing American government officials, including diplomats, with directed energy weapons for a decade.

   This is a classic act of war.

   Putin knows Russia will be destroyed if he were to start a conventional war against the West with tanks and missiles, so he resorts to sabotage, assassinations, and non-lethal neutralization of key US government officials, including one of CIA’s highly decorated operations officers, Marc Polymeropoulos, who had to retire due to permanent health problems arising from a directed energy weapon attack in Moscow in 2017.

2. The Kremlin regime only understands military might, therefore any conclusion to the invasion of Ukraine, the terms of which will be negotiated in the end, will actually have to be brought about militarily, not diplomatically.

3. The end result must be eviction of Russian forces from all occupied land in Ukraine - including Crimea. This is not just for Ukraine’s sake, but for the sake of global security. Putin wins if he walks away from this war with any conquered territory. If Putin wins, the risk of a sequence of events that lead to a world war skyrocket. China will pounce on the opportunity to invade Taiwan if we set a fresh precedent that international agreements of nuclear powers assuring security and territorial sovereignty of non-nuclear nations mean nothing.

Biden administration’s lack of understanding of Russia and Putin led to a schizophrenic and reactionary mishmash of conflicting policies without a defined end-goal to deal with Russia. Such weakness, if it is to be allowed to continue, will very likely lead to China’s invasion of Taiwan, chaos in Europe, and possible World War 3. If Ukraine collapses politically or economically, Russia will continue the invasion of Europe westward - Moldova, Romania, the Baltics.

The United States has had a policy of appeasement toward Russia since 2014 by imposing irrational redlines on Ukraine - the nation on the receiving end of an invasion. You can read that again.

APPEASEMENT OF RUSSIA

1. Shortly before February 24th 2022, President Biden telegraphed to Putin that the United States will not defend Ukraine if Russia invades. This betrayal of the spirit of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, an international agreement signed by the United States promising to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for nuclear disarmament, was taken as a green light by the Kremlin to proceed with the full scale invasion. The path to this betrayal was first paved by the Obama administration in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea and Donbas in Ukraine, undoubtedly with an implicit green light from the White House, borne out of fear of confronting Russia.

2. Refusal to send so-called “offensive” weapons during the critical initial stages of the war. Recall all the nonsense talk of only supplying Ukraine with “defensive” weapons because of an irrational fear of provoking Russia. Germany literally offered to send some helmets. Had we simply acted rationally and unloaded the necessary weapons on Ukraine, Russia may have failed to capture Mariupol in 2022, which resulted in the murder of at least 100,000 Ukrainian civilians by Russians. And that’s the death toll in just one Ukrainian city, now full of mass graves.

   In 2022, because of our administration’s forceful imposition of arbitrary redlines prohibiting the supply of “offensive weapons” to Ukraine even by our allies, Poland had to literally disassemble fully-functional Mig-29 fighter jets and secretly tell Ukraine where the aircraft parts are hidden in the forest on the border, so the Ukrainians could pick up the parts and reassemble the aircraft behind America’s back. Imagine the ridicule in the halls of the Kremlin.

3. Prohibition to use US weapons to strike military targets inside Russia, another absurd red line that only emboldened Russia. Recently, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, General Syrskyi stated that Ukraine cannot win the war so long as it remains on the defensive. This should be obvious to anyone. The Biden administration finally relented (partially) only because the delusion of “consequences” for striking inside Russia was shattered by Ukraine’s heroic offensive to capture large territory in Russia’s Kursk region. Not only did Russia not use nukes in response, they still can’t even take back the Russian territory now occupied by Ukraine.

4. Ukraine was able to wage a successful counteroffensive into Russia in Kursk region only because the plan was kept secret from the United States. There is indication the Biden administration acted in concert with the Kremlin to halt certain Ukrainian military operations when they were disclosed to the United States in advance. On June 25 2024, Russian Defence Minister Belousov called US Defense Secretary Austin to complain about an impending Ukrainian operation against Russia. The result? “Americans contacted the Ukrainians and said, essentially, if you’re thinking about doing something like this, don’t.”

   In the summer of 2024, Russians parked dozens of Su-34 striker-bomber aircraft, used for bombardment of Ukraine, out in the open just 100 miles from the border at Voronezh Malshevo air base. When the White House learned of a planned Ukrainian operation to destroy these aircraft, Ukraine was prohibited from proceeding. It is unclear if the phone call between Belousov and Austin concerned this particular Ukrainian operation that was blocked by the White House.

5. The US pressured Ukraine not to strike Russian oil and gas infrastructure even with weapons produced domestically in Ukraine. The Biden administration’s willful protection of Russia’s war machine, enabling Putin to continue to destroy Ukraine was absurd. Because no coherent plan with a defined outcome was ever developed by the administration, despite being required in the funding law passed by Congress, bureaucrats occupying seats on the National Security Council and elsewhere in the administration, representing the interests of their own industries, often in conflict with each other and the big picture, were able to infect the decisions made on Russia and Ukraine. That is the only way you end up with an Assistant Defense Secretary testifying in front of Congress that Ukraine must not target Russian oil & gas industry.

In April 2024, US Assistant Secretary of Defense Wallander, a civilian with no military experience, whose prior career involved lobbying for US investment in Russia, went as far as implying that Ukraine, a nation being invaded by Russia, was somehow committing “war crimes” by striking Russia’s oil & gas infrastructure. Imagine the pleasure and relief of Putin and Xi Jinping watching this testimony.

Compare the above to the position held by incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who wants to impose crippling sanctions on Russia, especially on the oil sector.

NEGOTIATION ROADMAP TO ENDING RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE

At this time, no negotiations will succeed because Putin does not have any incentives to end his imperial ambitions to conquer Europe. Russia is still vastly outproducing NATO in artillery and the war machine keeps on humming because of insufficient sanctions and continued appeasement, hampering Ukraine from being able to go on the offensive. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine held 200 rounds of negotiations, signing 20 ceasefire agreements with Russia. Each agreement was quickly breached by Russia, often with false-flag operations conducted by Russian military intelligence, blaming the brutal murders of Ukrainians in Russia-occupied territories on Kyiv.

All Putin sees in the West is weakness, naiveté, and appeasement toward him. A dictator only has one goal: Maintain totalitarian power. Putin will only yield when confronted by overwhelming force that threatens his hold on power.

For negotiations to succeed, the West along with Ukraine must have all the leverage, with Putin none, to the point where Russia has to make dire concessions in order for Ukraine to even accept the terms. That is the only way Russia will agree to be on the hook for massive reparations to Ukraine and hand over Russian war criminals to face justice, even if Putin himself is exempted.

The Trump administration may initially make futile attempts at freezing the frontline, offering to cede conquered Ukrainian territory to Russia, which would be a catastrophic outcome for global security. Without the “stick” of the proverbial “carrot & stick,” Putin will not agree even to this, as we explained back in November 2024.

Russia finds itself in a Gordian Knot of its own creation

In short, a sudden end of war comes with unacceptable risks to Putin in the current environment, far outweighing the risks of continuing the war. We must be aware, however, that Kremlin may attempt to use negotiations early on merely as a pretense to buy additional time. In the meantime, if an opportunity presents itself, we should certainly force Putin to agree to an exchange of all prisoners of war between Ukraine and Russia. Russia tortures, starves, castrates, rapes, and executes Ukrainian prisoners of war as a matter of policy. This alone warrants an American response of force that shocks Russia into compliance with laws of war.

Ukrainian POWs are forced to literally rot to death in Russian concentration camps

Trump administration should prepare the battlefield in all domains to achieve the conditions necessary for a successful negotiation to end the invasion by having Russia withdraw from Ukraine:

1. RESTORE AMERICAN CREDIBILITY

   If we are to avoid a world war, the Trump administration must restore credibility of the United States by clearly demonstrating that we keep our promises, starting with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from us. Damn the “ambiguous language” in the document — all sides clearly knew what was being stipulated. Ukraine did not give up thousands of nuclear warheads expecting the US to just stand idly by, literally telling Russia in advance that we won’t defend Ukraine militarily if they were to invade. Continued failure to live up to the monumental promise we made to Ukraine will result in accelerated nuclear proliferation across the globe and conquests for land by totalitarian regimes, making the world much more dangerous. If we don’t want to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty through military means as we promised in exchange for their voluntary nuclear disarmament, then we can supply Ukraine with a nuclear arsenal so they can guarantee their own security and territorial sovereignty.

   A nuclear superpower with the strongest military in the world too fickle and afraid to protect a nation as promised in exchange for nuclear disarmament will not be taken seriously by our adversaries. All the world’s tyrants are watching.

2. DESTROY RUSSIAN ECONOMY WITH CRIPPLING SANCTIONS

   Impose crippling sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry, as the incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated he’d like to do. Russia continues to fund the invasion with oil and gas exports, even after 3 years of all-out war and sanctions. In 2024, Russia generated nearly $200 billion from oil sales largely thanks to the illegal shadow fleet of oil tankers. China and India buy around 94% of all Russian oil exports. Current sanctions are insufficient.

   Real military spending in Russia is double the official government figure through the use of off-budget hidden loans of $207-$249 billion to defense contractors since 2022, according to Craig Kennedy’s analysis. This is unsustainable for Russia, and the scheme introduces systemic risks for an economic collapse, which should be welcomed by the West, not feared. The nearly 200 shadow fleet oil tankers freely traversing through international waters should be promptly arrested and seized to cut off oil revenue for Russia. No more games. No more appeasement.

3. FROZEN RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK ASSETS ARE FOR UKRAINE

   From the get go, Trump administration should make clear that Russia will never see the $300 billion in assets frozen by the West. This money will never be a part of any negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. It should be used to fund military support for Ukraine and/or reconstruction after the war is over. Russia is estimated to have caused Ukraine over $1 trillion in damages so far.

4. ARM UKRAINE TO WIN OR EVICT RUSSIANS OURSELVES

   Putin only understands strength. American military might must be unleashed in order to end the war through eventual negotiations. Trump administration must abandon the half-baked Biden policy of always arming Ukraine late, and just enough not to succumb to Russia. Instead, long-range weapons systems in significant quantity must be supplied to Ukraine and used against any military and strategic targets in Russia that Ukraine deems important. US has the weapons in our arsenal that can destroy the Kerch Bridge once-and-for-all. Let’s give them to Ukraine. No more red lines.

   North Korea has been supplying Russia with long-range ballistic missiles, which have been used to strike the capital Kyiv. North Korean soldiers have been dispatched not only to Kursk region in Russia to fight Ukrainians, but there are also reports of their presence in Russia-occupied Ukraine. Why are we sitting on our hands doing nothing in response? Even if we don’t reciprocate with our own forces, we have the tools in our superior arsenal which can be given to Ukraine to achieve a similar military effect on the battlefield.

   The US has supplied 31 Abrams tanks and zero F-16 aircraft to Ukraine. We must flood Ukraine with quantity and quality of armament that will terrify Russia.

   The alternative, which may eventually become necessary anyway since Ukrainian manpower is being depleted daily thanks to our weakness and irrational fear, is to engage the our own military to bombard Russian troops occupying Ukraine. This is not an attack on Russia, this is defense of Ukraine so long as our operations are conducted within the Ukrainian borders. Our naval and air assets can easily strike Russian positions in occupied Crimea and east Ukraine from afar. We are fully justified to take such actions as a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum.

   By helping Ukraine defend its territory with our military assets, the Ukrainian military would be afforded the bandwidth to conduct offensive operations into Russia, radically shifting the dynamic of the war to Ukraine’s advantage. No negotiations will succeed unless Russians feel the war at home.

   Ukraine does not have sufficient air defense systems to counter the daily bombardment by Russian aircraft, drones, and ground-launched ballistic missiles. Given the sheer size of Ukrainian territory, the more effective solution is to arm Ukraine with weaponry to destroy the launch sites in Russia.

   BOTTOMLINE: Ukraine is not “winning” unless more Russian soldiers are eliminated on Ukrainian soil than are being replenished. The goal should be at least 2,500 to 3,000 Russian casualties daily. 600,000 Russian soldiers occupy Ukraine. About 30,000-45,000 are brought in each month from Russia to replace their dead and wounded.

5. BRING BACK PSYOPS & COVERT OPERATIONS: Putin has been running intricate active measures against the West for 25 years without any repercussions, including sabotage, assassinations, terrorism, and subversion. It is time we respond with our own psychological operations targeting the Russian population. Putin has no right to feel comfortable. He faces significant risks of another military rebellion in 2025 given the ongoing corruption, incompetence, incredible troop losses, and a looming economic crisis. All of that is fair game to exploit by our intelligence community to build dissent and chaos at all echelons of Russian society.

6. DECLARE RUSSIA AS A TERRORIST STATE

   The US must designate Russia as a terrorist state. Removal of the designation can be contingent on Russia ending terrorist activities and a satisfactory end to the invasion of Ukraine. GRU unit 29155 should be hunted down and eliminated as the first order of business.

7. END DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA

   We should close our embassy in Moscow and expel all Russian government employees from American soil. This act will help rather than hinder any future negotiations with the Kremlin. Only a desperate Putin will come to the negotiating table in good faith. Putin must understand that he is persona non grata so long as there are Russian troops in Ukraine.

8. REMOVE RUSSIA FROM UN SECURITY COUNCIL

   Russia blatantly violated the Budapest Memorandum, which it signed as a member of the UN Security Council, promising to never invade Ukraine. For the sake of global security, this behavior can not go unpunished.

   The method by which Russia even got a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council following the fall of the Soviet Union is legally questionable, as there wasn’t even a vote. We can’t have a terrorist state influence any global organizations, let alone one that has veto power on the UN Security Council.

CONCLUSION

There is a war that threatens the entire globe, and we must finally act like it. The Budapest Memorandum fully entitles us to defend Ukraine militarily, up to and including arming Ukraine with nuclear weapons if other solutions fail.

The Trump administration now faces the critical task of stopping a brutal war that has upended Europe, risking spillover in what may turn into a world war. By leaving the failures of prior reactive policies behind and embracing a proactive approach with concrete objectives, the United States can help Ukraine reclaim its sovereignty, safeguarding the broader free world from an unfolding disaster.

We must use all available tools to bankrupt Russia, destroy its power and influence across the globe, sow dissent among the Russian population, and expel all Russian troops from Ukraine. As we embark on the path of implementing and executing the mechanisms to achieve these outcomes, Putin will come crawling, begging to negotiate. This is the only strategy to ensure lasting peace.

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